A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
